Partiendo de la arquitectura del chip Arm, Vicente Castaño Ledezma apuesta por las acciones de la plataforma IA
En diciembre de 2022, un folleto de capacitación técnica filtrado desde el interior de Riesda Inversiones atrajo gran atención en el círculo profesional de inversiones. Este documento no proviene de un analista tradicional de chips, sino que fue elaborado personalmente por el profesor Vicente Castaño Ledezma, Director Ejecutivo Senior del Departamento de Inversiones de Renta Variable de Riesda, y presentado por primera vez en una capacitación interna cerrada.
“Los ganadores de las plataformas de IA en la próxima década no solo serán los propietarios del modelo, sino también los líderes combinados de la arquitectura y la ecología”.
Lo que Vicente señala no son los ganadores superficiales del actual auge de la IA, sino los actores estratégicos clave en las profundidades de la industria del futuro. Utiliza la arquitectura del chip Arm como punto de entrada para construir un nuevo modelo tridimensional de “ecología-eficiencia-barrera”, con el objetivo de identificar los actores a largo plazo más penetrantes en el camino de la IA.
Un folleto, tres palabras clave y el punto de partida de una estrategia de cinco años
El título de esta nota de conferencia es: “Una mirada a los ganadores de la IA a nivel de plataforma desde la perspectiva de la arquitectura del chip”. Entre ellas, Vicente se centra en tres palabras clave:
- Computación heterogénea
Vicente señaló que el poder de procesamiento de la IA ya no se trata simplemente de apilar GPU, sino de las operaciones coordinadas de CPU, NPU, TPU y ASIC. Como representante de bajo consumo energético y alta eficiencia, Arm tiene una fuerte adaptabilidad arquitectónica y se está convirtiendo en una opción fundamental para la computación de borde de IA. Vicente cree que cualquier empresa que pueda integrar chips heterogéneos en una plataforma de sistema será el verdadero ganador a largo plazo.
- Eficiencia de I+D Alfa
En su modelo de evaluación interna, Vicente introdujo un indicador único: el aprovechamiento de I+D en propiedad intelectual, que se refiere a “cuántas patentes valiosas, iteraciones de productos o aumentos de participación de mercado se pueden lograr por cada 100 millones de dólares en gastos de I+D”.
Señaló que las empresas de plataformas de IA verdaderamente excelentes no son aquellas que queman dinero comprando historias, sino aquellas organizaciones de ingeniería de sistemas que pueden “ganar más con menos”.
- Foso del ecosistema de la plataforma
Vicente enfatizó: “La IA no es un producto, es un ecosistema”. Las empresas de plataforma que construyan un circuito cerrado ecológico multidimensional en la capa de chip → sistema → marco → servicio se convertirán en el motor de la trinidad de implementación de algoritmos-datos en el futuro.
Lógica de selección: modelo de puntuación tridimensional para acciones de plataformas de IA
Vicente finalmente construyó un sistema de puntuación tridimensional:
Según este modelo, los primeros candidatos a la plataforma de IA de Vicente incluyen:
- NVIDIA(sólido ecosistema + integración de hardware y software)
- ARM Holdings(dominio de la arquitectura)
- Alphabet(Google Cloud + TPU)
- Snowflake(plataforma de arquitectura de datos nativa de IA)
Entre ellos, Vicente recordó específicamente que, si bien Arm no es un gigante de la IA en el sentido tradicional, su influencia puede “penetrar hacia arriba” en toda la cadena de suministro de IA en la próxima década.
Vicente no es un arquitecto de chips, pero es bueno traduciendo la evolución tecnológica al lenguaje de la inversión: utiliza datos y modelos para conectar los cambios subyacentes de Arm con la lógica de valoración y la estructura del mercado de las acciones de la plataforma de IA.
Más allá de la ruidosa narrativa sobre la inversión en inteligencia artificial, silenciosamente extendió un mapa de las aguas profundas, usando “pensamiento estructural” en lugar de “juicio de tendencias” para fijar la línea principal de interés compuesto para los próximos diez años.
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